The MOU was signed at Versailles on June 18. The US naval blockade is lifted. Iran's oil export sanctions waivers are active. On June 19, three Saudi Arabia-flagged supertankers carrying ~6 million barrels physically crossed the Strait of Hormuz — the first transits since February 28. Brent dropped from $95 → $77 on the news, then bounced to ~$80 as Lebanon fighting continued to complicate the ceasefire. Iran briefly declared Hormuz re-closed June 21 over Israeli strikes on Hezbollah — CENTCOM said shipping was still proceeding normally. The October cliff is now averted if Hormuz reaches full volume by mid-July. But ~500 vessels are still waiting to transit, mines are still in the water, insurance premiums are still elevated, and every Israeli strike on Lebanon is a potential Hormuz re-closure trigger.
Select a country at the top to compare the pressure directly. Figures are sourced snapshots, not live APIs, meant to show how the same disruption lands differently across economies. Scroll down for the full supply/demand balance analysis.
The MOU is signed. The US blockade is lifted. Iran's oil export waivers are active. Brent has dropped from $95 → ~$80 as the market prices physical supply restoration. But the supply-demand table is only beginning to improve — ~500 vessels still queued, Hormuz traffic at ~5% of normal, mines uncleared. Iran briefly re-closed June 21 over Lebanon; CENTCOM disputed it. Full recovery is weeks to months away. The IEA buffer's October deadline is no longer the primary risk — Lebanon relapse is.
The MOU is signed, the blockade is lifted, first tankers are crossing. Under the optimistic scenario — Hormuz reaches normal volume by mid-July — the IEA buffer never depletes fully, Brent falls toward $75-80, and the October cliff is entirely averted. But the deal is under immediate strain. Israel has continued operations in Lebanon, and Iran briefly re-closed Hormuz on June 21 citing the Lebanon clause of the MOU. Every Israeli strike on Hezbollah is a potential Hormuz trigger. Switzerland talks (June 21–22) produced a "roadmap" for a final deal and a Lebanon de-confliction framework — but Israel is not a signatory, Netanyahu vowed to maintain a security zone in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has not disarmed. The risks have shifted: the October cliff (IEA buffer depletion) is no longer the primary scenario. The primary risk is now a Lebanon escalation causing an extended Hormuz re-closure that restarts the crisis from a lower Brent baseline (~$80 vs. $95). The secondary risk remains the 60-day nuclear talks failing — which would collapse the MOU framework entirely.
Hormuz disruption affects more than oil tankers. It also hits liquefied natural gas cargoes from Qatar and the UAE, and liquefied petroleum gas flows used for cooking, heating, and petrochemical feedstock across Asia.
S&P Global estimated the disruption was removing around 150 million cubic meters a day of delivered LNG supply during March and April, tightening competition for spot cargoes across Asia and Europe.
Open sourceRystad said constrained traffic and delayed production normalization could keep Asian spot LNG much higher through 2026, especially in import-dependent markets.
Open sourceReuters reported that Asian importers were scrambling for propane and butane from the Americas, with April spot premiums soaring to record highs and much longer shipping times than Middle East routes.
Open sourceThese links are dated source snapshots used to build the current view. They open in a new tab so readers can inspect the reporting directly.
Price moves happen first because markets react instantly. Physical shortages take longer: ships need rerouting, cargoes need insurance, refiners need feedstock, and local distributors need certainty before they refill tanks.
We build standalone sites, but the stories thread together. One blockade in the Gulf — and a parallel thread on the attention economy.