The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency reserve to suppress oil prices. It's working — for now. But 10 million barrels per day is still offline. The buffer runs out around October. If there's no deal by then, the underlying gap reasserts and prices spike hard. Select a country above to see how the disruption is landing differently in oil, freight, LNG, LPG, and household energy costs.
Select a country at the top to compare the pressure directly. Figures are sourced snapshots, not live APIs, meant to show how the same disruption lands differently across economies. Scroll down for the full supply/demand balance analysis.
The Hormuz blockade removed 10 million barrels per day from global supply — the largest disruption in recorded history. Brent is only ~$93 because six offsets are masking the true gap. But most are temporary, and the biggest one expires in roughly four months.
The 2.5 million barrel per day artificial price floor vanishes. The harvest shortfall from the under-fertilized spring planting season arrives in grain markets. And Hormuz will have been closed for over 7 months — longer than any disruption in history, with no guarantee of reopening. Analysts project Brent at $110–$140+ if the disruption continues without the emergency buffer. Iran has already threatened to activate the Bab al-Mandab Strait (Red Sea) simultaneously. The IEA buffer bought time for a deal to close. That window is narrowing.
Hormuz disruption affects more than oil tankers. It also hits liquefied natural gas cargoes from Qatar and the UAE, and liquefied petroleum gas flows used for cooking, heating, and petrochemical feedstock across Asia.
S&P Global estimated the disruption was removing around 150 million cubic meters a day of delivered LNG supply during March and April, tightening competition for spot cargoes across Asia and Europe.
Open sourceRystad said constrained traffic and delayed production normalization could keep Asian spot LNG much higher through 2026, especially in import-dependent markets.
Open sourceReuters reported that Asian importers were scrambling for propane and butane from the Americas, with April spot premiums soaring to record highs and much longer shipping times than Middle East routes.
Open sourceThese links are dated source snapshots used to build the current view. They open in a new tab so readers can inspect the reporting directly.
Price moves happen first because markets react instantly. Physical shortages take longer: ships need rerouting, cargoes need insurance, refiners need feedstock, and local distributors need certainty before they refill tanks.
We build standalone sites, but the stories thread together. One blockade in the Gulf — and a parallel thread on the attention economy.