On June 13–14, Trump announced he would sign a deal with Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent fell from $95 → ~$88 as markets priced deal probability. But the physical reality hasn't changed yet: Hormuz is still closed, and even the MOU draft says reopening takes up to 30 days from signing. The dark fleet is still stopped. The IEA buffer (~2.5M bbl/day) still expires around October 1. If Hormuz reopens in mid-July: relief arrives before the October cliff, Brent could fall toward $70-80. If the deal is delayed or fails: markets reverse hard and the cliff is terminal. The contest between "signing today" and "three competing drafts" is what the next 48 hours are about.
Select a country at the top to compare the pressure directly. Figures are sourced snapshots, not live APIs, meant to show how the same disruption lands differently across economies. Scroll down for the full supply/demand balance analysis.
The Hormuz blockade removed 10 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent dropped from $95 → ~$88 on June 13–14 as Trump announced an MOU signing today. But the supply-demand table below hasn't moved: Hormuz is still physically closed, the dark fleet is still stopped, and the MOU's own text says transit takes up to 30 days to restore to pre-war numbers after signing. The IEA buffer continues depleting regardless. Markets are pricing deal probability — not actual supply restoration.
A deal signed June 14 with a 30-day transit restoration timeline means Hormuz could be physically reopening in mid-July. Under that scenario, the IEA buffer stops depleting as import-dependent nations resume purchasing Gulf oil, and Brent could fall to $70-80 as the market rebalances. The October cliff — when the IEA's 400M barrel reserve hits zero — would be averted entirely. But this requires: (1) deal actually signed, not just announced; (2) Iran and US working from the same text; (3) Iran's demand for immediate sanction waivers, frozen asset releases, and blockade lifting met before they begin 60-day nuclear talks; (4) Lebanon/Israel not escalating and triggering Iran's ceasefire suspension; and (5) Hormuz mine clearance (a 6-month task per Pentagon) not blocking commercial transit. The IEA buffer clock runs regardless of these negotiations. If the deal fails or signing slips past mid-July, the cliff reasserts: ~$110-140+ by October is the no-deal scenario.
Hormuz disruption affects more than oil tankers. It also hits liquefied natural gas cargoes from Qatar and the UAE, and liquefied petroleum gas flows used for cooking, heating, and petrochemical feedstock across Asia.
S&P Global estimated the disruption was removing around 150 million cubic meters a day of delivered LNG supply during March and April, tightening competition for spot cargoes across Asia and Europe.
Open sourceRystad said constrained traffic and delayed production normalization could keep Asian spot LNG much higher through 2026, especially in import-dependent markets.
Open sourceReuters reported that Asian importers were scrambling for propane and butane from the Americas, with April spot premiums soaring to record highs and much longer shipping times than Middle East routes.
Open sourceThese links are dated source snapshots used to build the current view. They open in a new tab so readers can inspect the reporting directly.
Price moves happen first because markets react instantly. Physical shortages take longer: ships need rerouting, cargoes need insurance, refiners need feedstock, and local distributors need certainty before they refill tanks.
We build standalone sites, but the stories thread together. One blockade in the Gulf — and a parallel thread on the attention economy.